Now in its fifth decade, craft beer is ready for a modified approach
The U.S. beer market was almost entirely dominated by light lagers as recently as the early 2000s. “American beer” was defined as beers woefully bereft of notable character and flavor. They were brewed at gigundous corporate breweries with billion-dollar ad budgets. Those beers controlled over 95% of the total beer market. To a notable extent, those kinds of beers still do. Craft beer’s heroic efforts to reimagine things have made impressive inroads over the past five decades, but lately, it feels like the insurrection has stalled.
Twenty years ago, craft beer accounted for less than 5% of total dollar sales in the U.S. beer marketplace. By 2015, it reached 12%. For years, since 2014, it’s held steady at just under or around 14%. Progress? Yes. Still, 85% of beer sold here is not craft.
For perspective, consider this: In 2024, on average, beer consumers in the USA purchased 6.1 million cases of craft beer each week. Total. All craft beer combined. It sounds like a lot of beer, but at the same time, each week, beer consumers in the USA purchase 3.8 million cases of Modelo alone. Just Modelo. Consumers also purchased 2.5 million cases of Coors Light per week. Those two beers—just those two beers— surpassed the entirety of all craft beer sold by the nation’s more than 9,000 craft breweries.
I am not saying craft should aspire to become big beer, and I am not pointing out these numbers to make you sad. Rather, I am pointing out that craft beer still has work to do and there’s an opportunity for significant gains. I believe that with some consideration and strategy, it is achievable.
Hit ‘em where they live
There’s a well-worn, almost hackneyed adage in the business world: meet people where they already are, not where you want them to be. Lately, I’ve come to realize that it is time for breweries to stop telling people what they should drink; rather, it’s time to start selling people what they want to drink.
Doing so is not a cop-out or an abandonment of craft beer’s ideals. Operating a brewery, craft or not, is a business, not some form of private self-gratification. Breweries exist to make beers people want to drink and buy. Anything else is foolish from a business standpoint. Meeting people where they are does not require acting like corporate behemoths.
Brew what the market wants, but do it well: use the best ingredients, maintain high standards, care about employees, community, and customers. Give people what they want, keep your business viable, and keep people employed. Don’t cling to making beers nobody wants to buy.
A spontaneously fermented, barrel-aged hibiscus saison will appeal to some people, but not the larger audience. However, if your passion is making those unique beers and you can remain viable, cheers to you. You’re among the few breweries surviving on that razor-thin edge. Craft beer should always have room for wild creativity, but that won’t work for most breweries or for the overall market, because most consumers won’t go there. You cannot tell them what they should like. The heart wants what the heart wants. “I can’t make you love me if you don’t,” as Bonnie Raitt sang.
Serious business, but, c’mon man, lighten up
Lately, I’ve seen more and more breweries leaning into what I think is the new craft beer ethos, crafting beers that align with what a larger portion of the beer-drinking audience wants to buy. Namely, light American-style lagers and other approachable lager styles, the kind of beers that craft beer snobs have traditionally snubbed their noses at. They should still make the stuff that more traditional craft beer lovers crave, but I think this shift is a positive for the craft beer industry. This slight course correction is part of the industry’s maturation process.
We may never get certain beer drinkers to put down a can of Modelo and pick up an Imperial IPA, but if we offer them a Five Star Dive Bar Light Lager from Bale Breaker Brewing, a Tavern Beer from Georgetown Brewing, or a Heidelberg Premium Lager from 7 Seas Brewing, maybe we’ll steal a consumer away from the international conglomerates that dominate 85% of beer sales in this country. We can convert them. Bring ‘em around. Maybe, eventually, even get them to expand their expectations of beer flavor and character. Make them understand what makes craft beer so much better.
Sure, we beer geeks love the robust flavors and character of craft beer, but we also love the fact that craft breweries, even the biggest craft breweries, are small businesses. I go to the pub in my neighborhood and often run into people who work at one of the local breweries. I like that. These folks can afford to sit at the bar with me and enjoy a pint of beer because I support the brewery at which they work. And that brewery is mind-bendingly generous in its giving back to local non-profits and other organizations in the community. Along with making darn tasty beer, this is the brewery’s superpower.
When craft beer emerged in the 80s, its superpower was its robust flavors that spat defiantly in the faces of corporate big beer. Few people, however, sought rescue from bland lagers: only a very small portion of the audience was interested in what craft beer offered. The industry has fought for more than 40 years to change audience tastes, with some modest success. That’s led to the establishment of about 9,000+ craft breweries in the USA. Still, craft beer has yet to really crack the code. It’s time for a slight course correction.
Recognizing craft beer’s superpower
Craft beer needs to flex its lesser-known superpowers, like its ability to connect more directly with customers at a personal level through meaningful community engagement. Superpowers like its agility, which allows it to adapt more rapidly to changing consumer tastes. Keep making superior beer, of course, but lean into the things that make craft beer different than Big Beer, the things beyond flavors and character that set craft beer apart from Big Beer.
Speaking of agility and adaptability, I applaud all the breweries I’ve noticed making efforts to meet people where they already are by offering lighter styles, leaning into pilsners, and putting the premium back in Premium Lager.
Will craft beer ever convince more than 15% of the audience to get excited about things like Belgian-style dubbels or barrel-aged stouts? Probably not, but anything’s possible. There will always be a place for complex craft beers, but there’s nothing wrong with also giving people what they want. Just beer.
Craft beer’s black album
Think of the oft-told story of Metallica’s rise to glory. The band’s first four albums found a modicum of success among a very small but enthusiastic subset of music fans. (Sounds familiar.) Those semi-obscure albums kicked ass, it’s hard to deny: authentic, hardcore, and seminal, but not to everyone’s taste. (Sounds familiar.) When the band pivoted a bit and released its fifth album, the eponymous “black” album, everything changed. Metallic went from playing sold-out shows at sweaty clubs in Fresno and Hoboken to playing sold-out concerts at soccer stadiums in Sao Paulo and Frankfurt. All the while, Metallica still kicked ass, and today still kicks ass because they never stopped being Metallica. That’s why the pivot worked.
Craft beer should always remain craft beer, but now is the time to take action: breweries should intentionally create beers that appeal to a broader audience, without sacrificing their identity. Embrace this evolution. Stay true, but actively engage more people in the craft beer experience. Let’s make the next chapter for craft beer one driven by inclusion and connection, not just tradition.
